CROSS scenarios 2022

Four scenarios

Exploring alternative pathways to net zero

Two dimensions

Climate policy and energy market integration

Version 2022

Published July 2023

A harmonised set of Swiss energy-system futures defined along two policy dimensions: climate policy ambition and international energy market integration

Dimensions

Scenario dimensions

Climate policy

2050 net-zero GHG emissions target excluding aviation

Domestic

Switzerland reaches net-zero greenhouse gas emissions using solely domestic mitigation and carbon removal measures.

Abroad

Switzerland may use international carbon removal to compensate residual emissions that are difficult to avoid.

Energy market integration

Access to international energy markets

High integration

Switzerland has good access to international energy markets and can import electricity and low-carbon energy carriers.

Low integration

International energy trade is constrained, and Switzerland has reduced import availability of electricity and low carbon energy carriers.

Matrix

Scenario space

The four scenarios results from combining two dimensions: climate policy (domestic vs. carbon removal abroad) and market integration (high vs. low)

.

Domestic-together

  • Climate policy

    2050 net-zero GHG - domestic

  • Market integration

    High

.

Abroad-together

  • Climate policy

    2050 net-zero GHG - abroad

  • Market integration

    High

.

Domestic-alone

  • Climate policy

    2050 net-zero GHG - domestic

  • Market integration

    Low

.

Abroad-alone

  • Climate policy

    2050 net-zero GHG - abroad

  • Market integration

    Low
Assumptions

Scenario assumptions and drivers

Technologies

Nuclear phase-out

Phase-out of existing nuclear power plants at the end of their lifetimes

Other technologies

All other technologies available

Macro-economic variables

Population, GDP, Households

Energy reference area

Total floor area of buildings that is actively heated

Demands

Annual demand of different energy end uses

Fuel import prices

Import prices of energy carriers

Resources

Renewable and biomass potentials
Modelling protocol and scenario document

Scenario documentation

Scenario document

Scenario definitions, narrative and core assumptions

Modelling protocol

Summarised input parameters and scenario assumptions

Version history - Changelog

2022-11-22

First published (CROSS scenarios V2022-09)

2022-12-13

Updated import prices and net transfer capacities (NTCs)

2023-07-19

Updated links to CROSSDat resources (including versions)