CROSS scenarios 2025

Eight scenarios

Exploring alternative pathways to net zero

Three dimensions

Climate policy, renewable targets and charging infrastructure

Version 2025

Published December 2025

A harmonised set of Swiss energy-system futures defined along two policy dimensions: climate policy ambition and international energy market integration

Dimensions

Scenario assumptions

Climate policy

2050 net-zero GHG emissions target including aviation

Domestic

Switzerland reaches net-zero greenhouse gas emissions using solely domestic mitigation and carbon removal measures.

Abroad

Switzerland may use international carbon removal to compensate residual emissions that are difficult to avoid.

Renewables target

Swiss Energy Act measures including renewable electricity targets and limits on winter electricity imports

RES-target

Minimum production from new renewables and limits on winter electricity imports.

NoRES-target

No binding renewable electricity targets or winter import limits.

Electrification

Electrification of passenger transport

Full

Charging infrastructure expands fast enough to allow full electrification of passenger transport by 2050.

Limited

Charging infrastructure develops more slowly, limiting the role of electric vehicles in passenger transport.

Technology

Nuclear phase-out

Phase-out of existing nuclear power plants at the end of their lifetimes

Matrix

Scenario space

The eight scenarios results from combining three dimensions: climate policy (domestic vs. carbon removal abroad), renewables target (with vs. without) and electrification (full vs. limited).

.

Abroad-RES-Full

  • Climate policy

    2050 net-zero GHG - abroad

  • Renewables and import target

    RES target

  • Electrification

    Full

  • Technology

    Nuclear phase-out

.

Abroad-RES-Lim

  • Climate policy

    2050 net-zero GHG - abroad

  • Renewables and import target

    RES target

  • Electrification

    Limited

  • Technology

    Nuclear phase-out

.

Abroad-NoRES-Full

  • Climate policy

    2050 net-zero GHG - abroad

  • Renewables and import target

    No RES target

  • Electrification

    Full

  • Technology

    Nuclear phase-out

.

Abroad-NoRES-Lim

  • Climate policy

    2050 net-zero GHG - abroad

  • Renewables and import target

    No RES target

  • Electrification

    Limited

  • Technology

    Nuclear phase-out

.

Domestic-RES-Full

  • Climate policy

    2050 net-zero GHG - domestic

  • Renewables and import target

    RES target

  • Electrification

    Full

  • Technology

    Nuclear phase-out

.

Domestic-RES-Lim

  • Climate policy

    2050 net-zero GHG - domestic

  • Renewables and import target

    RES target

  • Electrification

    Limited

  • Technology

    Nuclear phase-out

.

Domestic-NoRES-Full

  • Climate policy

    2050 net-zero GHG - domestic

  • Renewables and import target

    No RES target

  • Electrification

    Full

  • Technology

    Nuclear phase-out

.

Domestic-NoRES-Lim

  • Climate policy

    2050 net-zero GHG - domestic

  • Renewables and import target

    No RES target

  • Electrification

    Limited

  • Technology

    Nuclear phase-out
Modelling protocol and scenario document

Scenario documentation

Scenario document

Scenario definitions, narrative and core assumptions

Modelling protocol

Summarised input parameters and scenario assumptions

Version history - Changelog

2022-11-22

First published (CROSS scenarios V2022-09)

2022-12-13

Updated import prices and net transfer capacities (NTCs)

2023-07-19

Updated links to CROSSDat resources (including versions)