Scenarios ETH-PSI nuclear white paper

Net-zero target

2050 net zero target including aviation

Nuclear investments costs

Alternative investment costs for nuclear

Market variants

Alternative interest rates for nuclear investments

Scenarios to analyze the role of nuclear power in the future Swiss energy system

Dimensions

Scenario dimensions

Climate policy

Net-zero GHG emissions

2050 net-zero GHG in Switzerland including aviation. Emissions may be compensated abroad.

Renewables target

Renewables only

Minimum production from new renewables and limits on winter electricity imports.

Renewables & Nuclear

Minimum production from new renewables and nuclear power

Market-Driven

No binding renewable electricity targets or winter import limits.

Nuclear investment cost

Cost of new nuclear investment

Low cost

Low cost of nuclear power plants: 5000 CHF2024/kW

Medium cost

Medium cost of nuclear power plants: 8000 CHF2024/kW

High cost

High cost of nuclear power plants: 12000 CHF2024/kW

Phase-out

No nuclear new build

Rate of return of new nuclear investments

Weighted Average Cost of Capital of new nuclear investments

WACC = 5%

WACC for new nuclear power investments of 5%

WACC = 8%

WACC for new nuclear power investments of 8%
Matrix

Scenario space

The eight scenarios results from combining three dimensions: climate policy (domestic vs. carbon removal abroad), renewables target (with vs. without) and electrification (full vs. limited).

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Abroad-RES-Full

  • Climate policy

    2050 net-zero GHG - abroad

  • Renewables and import target

    RES target

  • Electrification

    Full

.

Abroad-RES-Lim

  • Climate policy

    2050 net-zero GHG - abroad

  • Renewables and import target

    RES target

  • Electrification

    Limited

.

Abroad-NoRES-Full

  • Climate policy

    2050 net-zero GHG - abroad

  • Renewables and import target

    No RES target

  • Electrification

    Full

.

Abroad-NoRES-Lim

  • Climate policy

    2050 net-zero GHG - abroad

  • Renewables and import target

    No RES target

  • Electrification

    Limited

.

Domestic-RES-Full

  • Climate policy

    2050 net-zero GHG - domestic

  • Renewables and import target

    RES target

  • Electrification

    Full

.

Domestic-RES-Lim

  • Climate policy

    2050 net-zero GHG - domestic

  • Renewables and import target

    RES target

  • Electrification

    Limited

.

Domestic-NoRES-Full

  • Climate policy

    2050 net-zero GHG - domestic

  • Renewables and import target

    No RES target

  • Electrification

    Full

.

Domestic-NoRES-Lim

  • Climate policy

    2050 net-zero GHG - domestic

  • Renewables and import target

    No RES target

  • Electrification

    Limited
Assumptions

Scenario assumptions and drivers

Technologies

Nuclear phase-out

Phase-out of existing nuclear power plants at the end of their lifetimes

Other technologies

All other technologies available

Macro-economic variables

Population, GDP, Households

Energy reference area

Total floor area of buildings that is actively heated

Demands

Annual demand of different energy end uses

Fuel import prices

Import prices of energy carriers

Resources

Renewable and biomass potentials
Modelling protocol and scenario document

Scenario documentation

Scenario document

Scenario definitions, narrative and core assumptions

Modelling protocol

Summarised input parameters and scenario assumptions