CROSS scenarios
Exploring Energy Futures
Energy scenarios are plausible stories about how our energy system might evolve. They explore different futures to help decision-makers understand risks, opportunities, and trade-offs in Switzerland's energy transition.
Energy scenarios are plausible stories about how our energy system might evolve. They explore different futures to help decision-makers understand risks, opportunities, and trade-offs in Switzerland's energy transition.
Scenarios
What are energy scenarios?
Scenarios are systematic exploration of what-if questions that help us understand alternative pathways for the energy system
Think of scenarios as stories about the future Each scenario tells a coherent story about how our energy system might evolve, considering different assumptions about technology, policy, society, global development, resources, and other aspects affecting energy use or production. |
Why do scenarios matter?
Scenarios provide crucial insights for decision-making in an uncertain world
Strategic planning Help policymakers and industry prepare for different possible futures and make robust decisions that work across multiple scenarios. | Risk assessment Identify potential risks and opportunities, helping stakeholders understand what could go wrong and how to prepare for it. | Public dialogue Enable informed public discussion about energy choices by making complex trade-offs and implications visible and understandable. |
Scenario components
Scenarios can be developed based on various factors that influence the energy system. Some of these factors are controllable levers for policymakers and society, while others represent external conditions beyond direct control.
Policy assumptions What policies are in place? How ambitious are the climate targets? What regulations exist? |
Social behaviour Do people consume more energy? What life style changes occur? What technologies are socially accepted? |
Technology development What technologies are available? How fast do technologies improve? What costs are expected? |
External factors How do markets evolve? What are the impacts of climate change? |
Resource availability How much wood is available? What is the potential for solar electricity production? |
CROSS Scenarios
CROSS scenarios are scenarios for the future Swiss energy system defined along different dimensions
CROSS scenarios v2025
Emissions target: Net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 Aviation: Included in emissions target Nuclear policy: Nuclear phase-out at the end of existing plant lifetimes 4 scenarios - 2 dimensions View 2025 scenarios |
CROSS scenarios v2022-09
Emissions target: Net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 Aviation: Excluded from emissions target Nuclear policy: Nuclear phase-out at the end of existing plant lifetimes 4 scenarios - 2 dimensions |