CROSS scenarios are possible future developments of the Swiss Energy system. They are defined along different dimensions that have a direct or indirect effect on energy use or energy production.
The CROSS scenarios V2022-09 are defined along two policy dimensions: i) the ambition of the Swiss climate change mitigation policy, based on the Swiss Long-Term Climate Strategy (Swiss Federal Council, 2021); and ii) the developments in the international energy markets and trade.
Climate policy dimension
In the climate policy dimension, we consider the goal of the Swiss Federal Council to reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to net-zero by 2050 (Swiss Federal Council, 2019). Switzerland’s Long-Term Climate Strategy does not determine specific domestic and international shares for emission reductions. We consider the following two developments:
- Net zero GHG – domestic: We assume that the net-zero emissions target by 2050 is to be achieved solely with domestic measures., i.e. the target is achieved using carbon capture and storage (CCS) and Negative Emission Technologies (NETs) in Switzerland but the captured CO2 can be stored abroad.
- Net zero GHG – carbon removal abroad: In this variant, the net-zero emissions target in 2050
can also be achieved with the use of carbon removal abroad.
Energy market integration dimension
In the energy market integration dimension, we consider two distinct developments concerning the integration and access of Switzerland to European and global energy markets:
- High integration: The world gradually shifts to a sustainable and integrated global low-carbon energy system. Governments are aware of the need to use new energy sources, develop clean technologies further, and foster international collaboration to achieve the Paris Agreement targets.
As a result, Switzerland is well integrated into the European and global energy markets Imports of electricity and low-carbon or carbon-free energy carriers and fuels are secured via agreements between Switzerland and the EU and bilateral agreements between Switzerland
and other countries. The imported fuels and energy carriers are available for Switzerland in good quantities.
- Low integration: The globally connected energy sector diversifies with investments in both carbon-intensive and low-carbon energy sources, depending on the best available local solutions and (the rather limited in some geographies) renewable resource potentials. The global energy system becomes very fractured, and investors do not get clear and strong signals for clean energy sources and technologies. This investing behaviour limits the quantities of clean energy sources available for cross-border trade are reduced, as countries need these resources
to meet their own demands. As a result, signing agreements between Switzerland and the EU or other countries regarding imports of electricity and other low-carbon or carbon-free energy carriers is a formidable task due to limited exports from other countries. In such a world, Switzerland opts for a “reduced dependency on energy imports”.
Modelling protocol (summarised input parameters)
- Macro-economic drivers: population, number of households, working population and GDP
- Heating degree days
- Energy reference area by sector. For the residential sector by household type and age
- End-use energy demand for space heat, warm water, process heat, electricity from electric appliances, and transport
- Import prices
- Net transfer capacities